Saturday, January 19, 2013

"Up-side" Risk & Development


Brainstorm on "up-side risks" and development economics

"The only ignorant question is the one not asked"

Disclaimer  
As (I hope will not be too) apparent to anyone with a some level of economics or statistical education, this is not my area of forte - yet to open the bridges between siloed disciplines (aka interdisciplinary work) we must start walking into personally murky waters. We must not fear retribution for basics not received or lost (can you tell this is a pep talk?)

Up-side Risk
Are there "up-side" risks? In other words, how does one assess (or does one assess) the risks associated with a "positive" upside event? Of course for those that hedge there is upside risk. Hmm. So perhaps we can see investment in things like Air Conditioning or perhaps water systems and electrical systems as a hedge against risks in natural capital? Of course in an urban environment - with population densities well beyond the carrying capacity - such systems are no longer a "hedge", no longer "insurance" but full blown... cost? I now reach too far beyond my ken. Perhaps some input from others on how to think this through.

Sunday, September 14, 2008

What McCain campaign wants you to think

What McCain campaign wants you to think about:
Palin
Lipstick on a pig
Fear
Terror
War
Culture wars
Obama's funny name
Bridges to nowhere (supported or otherwise)
Airplanes on ebay (not personally places there or otherwise)


What they don't want you to think about:
The economy

Friday, August 15, 2008

Insight

There was some great insight I had on waking up this morning that I cannot recall at all. It is quite funny how that happens. I am having a brilliant insight and then like it never happened - poof. Reminds me of smoking pot. Great insights - all meaningless. I know... I'm getting older (that is of course humordamnit)

It's funny, I just read that the American women took the gold and silver in the Olympic games in Beijing. This was in the individual event (as it must considering that as teams that could not have taken the gold AND silver). It's funny because the Chinese women took the gold in the team event and thus highlighting strategy and cultural differences between the two countries. One more group oriented and the other more individual oriented. I think both countries would benefit from respecting the opposing philosophy a little more.

Saturday, June 07, 2008

Recent climate articles - may (never) read

Here are a couple of potentially interesting articles. Not sure if I'll get a chance to read them anytime soon though.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,
VOL. 35,
L11701,

doi:10.1029/2008GL033273,
2008


http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2008/2008GL033273.shtml

Is the observed NAO variability during the instrumental record unusual?

Semenov, V. M. Latif, J. Jungclaus, W. Park

Abstract


Observed multidecadal variability (30 yr
running means, trends, and moving standard deviations) of the North
Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the instrumental record is compared
to that simulated by two different coupled general circulation models
in extended-range control experiments. Simulated NAO exhibits strong
low frequency fluctuations, even on multi-centennial time scale.
Observed multi-decadal NAO variations agree well with the model
variability. Trend probability distribution functions, observed and
simulated, were not found to be different with statistical
significance. Thus, multi-decadal NAO changes similar to those observed
during the instrumental record, including the recent increase in
1965–1995, may be internally generated within the coupled
atmosphere-ocean system without considering external forcing.


GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,
VOL. 35,
L11603,

doi:10.1029/2008GL034059,
2008
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2008/2008GL034059.shtml

Potential predictability of rapid changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Hawkins, E., R. Sutton

Abstract


We explore the potential predictability
of rapid changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
(MOC) using a coupled global climate model (HadCM3). Rapid changes in
the temperature and salinity of surface water in the Nordic Seas, and
the flow of dense water through Denmark Strait, are found to be
precursors to rapid changes in the model's MOC, with a lead time of
around 10 years. The mechanism proposed to explain this potential
predictability relies on the development of density anomalies in the
Nordic Seas which propagate through Denmark Strait and along the deep
western boundary current, affecting the overturning. These rapid
changes in the MOC have significant, and widespread, climate impacts
which are potentially predictable a few years ahead. Whilst the flow
through Denmark Strait is too strong in HadCM3, the presence of such
potential predictability motivates the monitoring of water properties
in the Nordic Seas and Denmark Strait.




Wednesday, April 23, 2008

20 Things The Millionaire Next Door Does NOT Do

Stop thinking of money as stuff, as friends, as escape. Start thinking of it as storage for your future needs especially as a buffer in emergencies.
Pay for Lawn Service
Go to a Hair Stylist
Use Time as a Measurement for Success
Buy Brand New Cars
Carry a Monthly Credit Card Balance
Eat Out on a Regular Basis
Think He Knows It All
Socialize with People Who Waste Money
Desire Instant Gratification
Pay Retail for Name Brand Clothing
Keep His Money in a Checking Account
Replace What is Not Broken
Visit the Tanning Bed
Impulse Buy
Waste Time on Senseless Activities
Focus His Attention on Negative Obstacles
Bet The Farm
Fly First-class
Rent
Earn Every Dollar He Makes at His Day Job
 blog it

Sunday, January 27, 2008

Program Yourself

this is cRaZy! (in chris tucker's voice)
clipped from www.youtube.com

Friday, November 02, 2007

its like a hard drive

Joe: They can fail catastrophically.

Bob: What can?

Joe: Hard drives.

Bob: Funny that.

Joe: What’s that?

Bob: That something called a hard drive can fail catastrophically. I mean if it’s so hard...

Joe: Not surprising to me.

Bob: Why is that?

Joe: Well if you look in nature you will find that the more rigid something is the more likely it will fail catastrophically.

Bob: Like buildings? Like the twin towers in New York.

Joe: Yea but not like you think. I mean buildings are not as rigid as you think. Did you know that the Washington Monument sways 1/8” in a 100 mile per hour wind? And that isn’t a design quirk either that is part of the structural integrity of the building. It needs to give some or otherwise break.

Joe: We need to all include a little give in our lives. Or...

Bob: Or it’s like a hard drive.

Joe: Yea, its like a hard drive.