How AI Is Helping Us Understand Complex Systems—Not Just Predict Them

We often think of AI as a tool to predict the future—like guessing the weather, stock prices, or whether someone might get sick. But AI is starting to do something even more powerful: helping us understand the rules behind how complex systems work.

A recent issue of Complexity Thoughts explores this shift, showing how new AI methods are uncovering the hidden patterns behind things like disease spread, traffic flow, brain activity, and more. The goal isn't just to know what will happen—but to figure out why.

From Forecasting to Figuring Things Out

Most AI tools today are built to spot patterns and make forecasts. But these new approaches aim to find the actual equations—the basic rules that explain how a system behaves over time.

That’s a big leap. It means AI isn’t just guessing anymore—it’s helping build scientific models.

Why Simpler Models Are Better

Many of these studies use a method called sparse modeling. Instead of creating big, complicated equations, these models look for the smallest number of pieces needed to explain what’s going on.

Why? Because most systems—even complex ones—are driven by just a few key factors. If we can find those, we get models that are easier to understand and work with.

This approach is already being used to:

• Study how fluids flow,
• Track how diseases spread,
• Understand patterns in brain signals,
• And model chaotic systems like weather patterns.

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Finding the Right Way to Look at a System

Sometimes, raw data is messy or overwhelming—like thousands of brain signals or climate measurements. Even with powerful tools, it’s hard to see what matters.

One AI method solves this by first learning the best way to describe the system, and then figuring out the rules. It’s like teaching a computer to choose the right map before trying to navigate a city.

A Machine That Thinks Like a Scientist

Another team built what they call a Bayesian machine scientist. Instead of trying one model, it tries out many different ones, tests how well they match the data, and picks the best. It even learns from a large library of past equations, the way a human scientist might rely on years of experience.

When Randomness Is Part of the System

Some systems—like bird flocks or the brain—are naturally unpredictable. They have a lot of randomness built in. Instead of treating that randomness as noise, a new method called a Langevin Graph Network includes it in the model.

This has already led to real discoveries:

• Showing how birds flock using rules scientists have long suspected.
• Modeling how harmful brain proteins spread—something important for Alzheimer’s research.

Why This Is a Big Deal

Together, these projects show a big shift in how we use AI:

• Not just to automate tasks, but to help us discover how the world works.
• Giving us simple, understandable models we can use to guide action.
• Making science faster, more open, and easier to explain.

In a world dealing with complex challenges—like climate change, pandemics, and social disruption—this kind of AI could help us not only respond faster, but understand better.

Want to explore more? Check out Complexity Thoughts for links and summaries of these fascinating papers.

Unlock Your Writing Potential: Proven Techniques for Consistent Productivity

Introduction

This document is based on the transcript of this entertaining video. I recommend viewing the video as well as reading this post. 

Writing is often challenging, even painful, for many individuals. Occasionally, it flows effortlessly, but frequently, motivation can be a significant barrier. This document provides tips and strategies for maintaining motivation while writing—whether it's a research paper, thesis, or other writing tasks. Special attention is given to unusual yet effective techniques.

Motivation

Staying motivated is essential, especially when writing documents such as research papers or theses that significantly impact your academic and professional career. Inspiration can be fleeting, and relying solely on spontaneous bursts of motivation is not sustainable. Modern distractions like social media and infinite scrolling exacerbate this issue. Thus, creating effective habits and techniques is essential to maintain consistent writing productivity.

Make Your Results Visible

Visibility of progress significantly boosts motivation:

• Graph Progress: Use graphs, like simple Excel charts, to visually track milestones such as word count.

• Tangible Tracking: Implement tangible methods, such as moving paper clips from "not yet done" to "done" as you reach specific writing milestones.

• Kanban Boards: Utilize tools like Asana or Trello to manage your writing process visibly. Clearly show each writing stage—drafting, reviewing, revising, and finalizing—to maintain momentum and encourage continuous progress.

Routine and Action Association

Creating routine actions that your brain associates with writing can enhance motivation:

• Example - Herbal Tea Ritual: The speaker prepares peppermint or lemongrass and ginger tea before writing sessions. The consistent act of making tea signals the brain to transition into writing mode.

• Consistent Preparation: Adopt a consistent pre-writing routine, such as taking a short walk or another specific action, to trigger a productive mindset automatically.

Affirmations

Though often dismissed by a scientific mindset, affirmations may positively influence motivation:

• Example Affirmation: Clearly state your goals aloud regularly, such as, "I, [Your Name], will complete my thesis by the end of this year."

• Affirmations keep your goals at the forefront of your mind, enhancing focus and aligning your daily actions toward achieving these objectives. Regular repetition helps embed your objectives into your subconscious, thereby aiding sustained motivation.

Understanding Your Daily Best

Accepting that your daily productivity will vary is crucial:

• Your performance will fluctuate daily—some days you'll excel, while others will feel more challenging.

• Understand and accept these fluctuations without letting perfectionism impede your progress. Recognizing and being comfortable with this variability can itself become a source of motivation.

Summary

Maintaining motivation in writing requires a structured, adaptable approach. By visibly tracking progress, associating productive routines with writing, employing affirmations, and accepting daily variability in performance, you can improve your overall writing productivity. For further guidance, resources, and comprehensive strategies, visit the speaker's website at academiatoolkit.com for the "Ultimate Academic Writing Toolkit," forums, and additional resources.

Why Feeling Understood Matters as Much as Physical Survival: Lessons from Stephen Covey

"Next to physical survival, the greatest need of a human being is psychological survival—to be understood, to be affirmed, to be validated, to be appreciated."
–Stephen R. Covey, The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People

This quote comes from Stephen Covey's influential book "The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People," and it speaks to a fundamental human need that goes beyond basic physical requirements.

Covey is highlighting that after our physical needs for food, water, and shelter are met, our most pressing need is psychological - to feel truly seen and valued by others. This includes:

• Being understood: Having others grasp what we're really saying and feeling
• Being affirmed: Having our experiences and perspectives acknowledged as valid
• Being validated: Receiving confirmation that our thoughts and feelings matter
• Being appreciated: Having our contributions and presence recognized as valuable

This insight forms part of the foundation for Covey's fifth habit: "Seek First to Understand, Then to Be Understood." He argues that empathic listening - truly trying to understand others before asking them to understand you - is one of the most powerful skills we can develop in our relationships.

The quote reflects psychological research on human motivation, particularly Abraham Maslow's hierarchy of needs, which places "belongingness and love needs" and "esteem needs" just after physiological and safety needs. It speaks to our deeply social nature and how meaningful connection is essential to our wellbeing.

The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People

The Egg Crisis: How Bird Flu and Political Decisions Are Affecting Your Breakfast

Eggs, once a reliable and affordable staple in American kitchens, have become a luxury item as bird flu ravages poultry farms across the nation. This crisis extends beyond just breakfast tables, affecting restaurants, supply chains, and even politics, with rising prices adding to consumer frustrations about inflation.

Original article

The Soaring Cost of Eggs

The price surge has been dramatic. In certain areas, like Wisconsin, a carton of pasture-raised eggs can cost up to $10. Perhaps most striking is the comparison to gasoline—typically the benchmark for consumer price complaints—with eggs now costing $1.74 more per dozen than a gallon of gas. This unprecedented reversal has left many Americans reexamining their grocery budgets and food choices.

The impact reaches far beyond home kitchens. Major restaurant chains including Denny's and Waffle House have been forced to revise their menus in response to egg shortages and price increases. Meanwhile, grocery stores have implemented purchase limits on egg cartons to prevent hoarding and ensure more equitable distribution among consumers.

Bird Flu: The Culprit Behind the Crisis

The primary driver of this egg shortage is highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), which has necessitated the culling of egg-laying hens across the country. Farmers have had to destroy infected flocks to prevent further spread of the disease, significantly reducing the nation's egg production capacity.

Beyond the immediate economic impact, there's growing public health concern. Nearly half of Americans worry about the possibility of bird flu mutating to cause human outbreaks. This anxiety is well-founded, as zoonotic diseases (those that jump from animals to humans) have been responsible for several major pandemics throughout history.

Political Implications and Response

The egg crisis presents a significant challenge for the Trump administration, which has only been in office for six weeks. While the bird flu outbreak predates his presidency, the administration's response has come under scrutiny. According to reports, mass government layoffs included an unspecified number of professionals working on the bird flu response—personnel who officials are now scrambling to rehire.

These layoffs, reportedly overseen by Elon Musk as part of broader government cuts, have been criticized as displaying "bureaucratic incompetence." Only about one-third of Americans express satisfaction with President Trump's handling of prices, suggesting political vulnerability on economic issues.

Leadership Questions

Further complicating matters is the appointment of Kyle Diamantas, described as a 37-year-old Miami attorney and hunting companion of Donald Trump Jr., as the acting deputy commissioner for human foods at the Food and Drug Administration. In this role, Diamantas is responsible for overseeing safety for 80% of the nation's food supply, including managing threats like avian influenza.

Critics question whether his experience qualifies him to address complex food safety challenges, particularly during a crisis of this magnitude. His LinkedIn profile has been described as "a study in brevity," raising concerns about his relevant expertise.

The Broader Impact

The egg shortage illustrates how disruptions in one sector can ripple throughout society. Beyond breakfast, eggs are crucial ingredients in countless recipes, condiments, and processed foods. The scarcity affects everything from aioli for french fries to Caesar dressing and Chick-fil-A sauce.

The situation has even led to unusual law enforcement activities, with border patrol agents confiscating smuggled eggs as price differences create incentives for black market trade.

Looking Forward

As the bird flu situation continues to evolve, Americans face continued uncertainty about egg prices and availability. The administration's ability to effectively address both the agricultural crisis and its economic fallout may significantly influence public perception of its competence in managing domestic affairs.

For consumers, adaptation remains the immediate response—whether through finding egg alternatives, adjusting recipes, or simply paying premium prices for this once-affordable protein source that has become, decidedly, no longer cheaper by the dozen.

Original article

Unraveling Change: How Small Sustainability Efforts Can Transform the Textile Industry

So far, there aren’t many studies that connect small, specific projects with large-scale global systems or examine how different levels and processes interact. This paper uses a leverage points framework to explore how systems can be transformed. It looks at four sustainability efforts in the textile industry and examines how they fit into a larger network of connected systems. It also considers how these connections influence the ability of these efforts to create real change.

Systems onion(s) for sustainable ventures. The sustainable ventures (left) offer new ways of producing and consuming textiles, and thus represent a new, alternative system. They then work to attract consumers from the existing, dominant and unsustainable system

How Can Small Sustainability Efforts Transform the Textile Industry?

Building for a Hotter Future: Smart Design Solutions to Cut Building Energy Use, Particularly in the Global South

Buildings in hot climate zones face unique challenges in reducing energy use and CO₂ emissions, especially as urbanization and population growth drive new construction. This study examines how different design choices and technologies can help make buildings more energy-efficient while keeping them comfortable in high temperatures. Using computer simulations, the researchers tested five building types—ranging from homes to offices—across five hot climate regions. They explored a mix of passive design strategies (like better windows, reflective roofs, and solar shading), active cooling systems, and renewable energy options to see which solutions had the greatest impact.

The results show that simple changes, such as improving windows and adding shading, can significantly reduce cooling needs. More advanced systems, like hybrid ventilation and decentralized cooling units, further improve efficiency, while solar energy solutions help offset electricity use. The study also found that climate change will increase cooling demand in the future, making energy-efficient design even more critical. Notably, residential buildings had the greatest potential for achieving low-carbon or even zero-carbon status, while offices and hotels posed greater challenges due to their higher energy use.

To turn these insights into action, the study highlights the need for stronger policies and building codes, particularly in the Global South, where energy-efficient design is less widely implemented. The findings provide a roadmap for decision-makers to develop strategies that balance affordability with sustainability. By combining modern technology with lessons from traditional architecture, buildings in hot climates can become more efficient, reducing emissions while improving comfort and resilience in a warming world.

Overview of building types showing floorplans and basic renderings.

Citation

Österreicher, D., & Seerig, A. (2024). Buildings in hot climate zones—Quantification of energy and CO₂ reduction potential for different architecture and building services measures. Sustainability, 16(22), 9812. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16229812

Discovering the Secret Life of Solids: Catching Materials Evolution in Real Time

Metal halide perovskites are remarkable materials with the ability to convert sunlight into electricity, emit colorful light, and detect radiation. However, making them typically requires harmful solvents, and the process of their formation has remained largely invisible to scientists. To address this, researchers combined an old technique—mechanochemistry, which involves grinding solids to trigger chemical reactions—with modern optical spectroscopy. By replacing traditional milling jars with transparent quartz and using a Time-Lapsed In Situ (TLIS) spectrometer, they created a system that allows scientists to observe perovskite formation in real-time, capturing every millisecond of change. This new tool acts like a high-speed camera for materials, revealing how disordered solid precursors evolve into structured, functional crystals.

Figure 1: The TLIS Spectrometer and Its Applications, see description below.

Using the TLIS spectrometer, the team made several key discoveries. They observed how a promising solar cell material, formamidinium lead triiodide (FAPbI₃), quickly degrades from a stable black phase to an ineffective yellow phase, but adding methylammonium (MA⁺) helped slow this process significantly. In another case, a lead-free perovskite unexpectedly "self-healed" over the weekend, improving its ability to emit light due to the slow migration of chloride ions within the solid. They also enhanced tin-based perovskites, which are more environmentally friendly than lead-based ones but degrade quickly, by creating a protective chloride shell. This breakthrough not only improves stability but also opens new possibilities for biomedical imaging. The ability to observe materials evolving in real time allows scientists to develop and optimize new materials much faster, reducing research time from months to days while eliminating the need for hazardous solvents. This work paves the way for more sustainable, efficient material discovery across industries like solar energy, electronics, and even food science.

What is (and isn’t) Endemic Innovation?

Endemic Innovation (EI) is a way of creating solutions that are deeply connected to a specific region’s unique resources, traditions, and knowledge. Unlike traditional innovation, which focuses on making things scalable for a global market, EI starts locally—using what already exists in a place to solve problems in a sustainable and effective way. For example, Portugal’s Amorim Cork company uses the country’s natural cork forests and traditional harvesting techniques to produce high-tech materials for industries like aerospace. Similarly, Iceland’s ON Power turns volcanic heat into clean energy, while New Zealand’s Comvita builds on Māori knowledge to produce medical-grade Manuka honey. True EI must meet five key criteria: it must rely on endemic (unique and non-replicable) resources or knowledge, be sustainable, be deeply connected to local communities, combine local and global technologies, and have the potential for global impact.

However, not every local project counts as EI. Simply being a grassroots initiative or having local value doesn’t make something an example of EI unless it meets the strict criteria. For instance, Israel’s Netafim developed drip irrigation to solve water scarcity in the Negev Desert, but its technology was designed to be adapted worldwide. Similarly, Chile’s Spora transforms fungi from its native forests into sustainable fashion, combining ancient knowledge with cutting-edge biotechnology. The core idea of EI is not just preserving tradition but evolving it—blending old knowledge with modern advancements to create sustainable, high-impact solutions. As climate change and global challenges increase, EI offers a new way forward, proving that the best solutions often come from the unique strengths of a place rather than one-size-fits-all approaches.

SpringerCommunities, Published in Social Sciences, Sustainability, and Business & Management 

Feb 06, 2025, Daniel Martínez Pereira, Professor, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez

Asteroid Bennu’s Secrets: Clues to Life’s Building Blocks in Space

NASA’s OSIRIS-REx mission collected samples from asteroid Bennu and found important building blocks of life. Scientists discovered:

• 14 of the 20 amino acids that make up proteins in living things.
• All five pieces of DNA and RNA.
• Lots of ammonia and other important chemicals for life.
• Special salts that suggest Bennu’s parent asteroid once had liquid water.

This special scan of a tiny grain from Bennu’s surface shows where salty deposits sit on top of clay. The colors represent different elements: phosphorus (green), calcium (red), iron (yellow), and magnesium (blue). A very thin line of magnesium sodium phosphate (the green spot in the center) formed when water evaporated. This phosphate might have helped create some of the important organic molecules found in the sample.

These findings don’t mean life existed on Bennu, but they do show that the early solar system had the right ingredients for life to form elsewhere.

One surprising discovery was that Bennu’s amino acids twist in both directions, unlike on Earth, where they mostly twist one way. This challenges earlier ideas about how life might have started here.

Scientists are keeping most of the samples safe for future study, hoping to learn even more about how life’s building blocks spread through space.

Eos, by Kimberly M. S. Cartier, 29 January 2025

Tutor Perini JV's $1.18bn Manhattan Tunnel Contract

Summary

Original article, Global Construction Review

Overview of the Hudson Tunnel Project, showing the new, twin-tube rail tunnel to be built under the Hudson River in orange, and the existing North River Tunnel that will be rehabilitated. Tutor Perini’s project is represented by the orange line onshore in Manhattan on the right (Courtesy of the Gateway Development Commission)

A joint venture between Tutor Perini and its subsidiary Frontier-Kemper Constructors has been awarded a $1.18 billion contract to construct the Manhattan Tunnel, a key preparatory component for the larger $16 billion Hudson Tunnel Project (HTP).

Key Project Details

• Scope: The JV will design and build 700 feet of twin, 30-foot-diameter tunnels from the Manhattan Bulkhead on the Hudson River to the Hudson Yards Concrete Casing.
• Purpose: This temporary tunnel shell will clear the way for tunnel boring machines (TBMs) to later excavate the permanent tunnel.
• Challenges: Construction will navigate major sewer lines, utilities, and underground obstructions, including archaeological finds, debris, and remnants of the collapsed 1973 West Side Highway.
• Technology: A protective digging shield will be used to keep most of the work underground.
• Timeline: Work begins in spring 2025, with substantial completion by 2029.

Hudson Tunnel Project (HTP) Overview

• Purpose: HTP will add a new twin-tube rail tunnel under the Hudson River from Secaucus Junction, NJ, to Penn Station, NY, and rehabilitate the existing 115-year-old North River Tunnel.
• Current Rail Bottleneck: The only rail tunnel under the Hudson carries 24 trains per hour but suffered extensive damage from Hurricane Sandy in 2012, requiring heavy maintenance.
• Economic Impact: The Northeast Corridor, from Washington, DC, to Boston, contributes 20% of the U.S. GDP, making this project critical to national infrastructure.
• Completion Timeline:
  • New twin-tube tunnel: Opens in 2035
  • Rehabilitated North River Tunnel: Opens in 2038

Additional Contracts

• In August 2024, a joint venture of Lane Construction, Schiavone, and Dragados won a $466 million contract to build the New Jersey-side section of the tunnel.

The Gateway Development Commission calls HTP "the most urgent infrastructure program in America."

Moral Motivation and Social Influence in Decision-Making: A Theoretical Framework

This study introduces a theoretical model of decision-making that considers both moral values and social influence when people make choices. The key idea is that individuals must balance their personal interests with their sense of moral duty. The model assumes that moral motivation is not always strong on its own—it can be shaped by the actions of others. Specifically, moral obligation is made up of two parts: one that comes from within a person and another that is influenced by society. This framework helps explain common patterns seen in past research and offers a new way to understand economic behavior.

Incorporating Conditional Morality Into Economic Decisions

Masclet, D., Dickinson, D.L. Incorporating conditional morality into economic decisions. Theory Decis 98, 95–152 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-024-10000-4

Refining Savage’s Representation Theorem: Axiomatic Comparisons and Historical Insights

Savage’s theorem is based on seven rules for making logical choices. This study clears up some confusion in past research about how different versions of these rules relate to each other. By doing this, it helps explain the current form of the theorem. The study also looks at how the theorem has changed over time and its historical development.

Some Notes on Savage’s Representation Theorem

Frahm, G., Hartmann, L. Some Notes on Savage’s Representation Theorem. Theory Decis 98, 85–93 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-024-10003-1

On Savage's Representation Theorem

Savage’s Representation Theorem is a key result in decision theory that explains how rational choices can be modeled mathematically. It shows that if a person follows certain logical rules (axioms) when making decisions under uncertainty, then their choices can be represented as if they are maximizing expected utility—meaning they behave as if they are assigning probabilities to uncertain events and choosing the option that gives them the highest expected value.

Key Ideas of Savage’s Theorem:

1. Rational Decision-Making: The theorem is built on seven axioms of rational choice, which describe how a person should behave if they are making consistent and reasonable decisions.
2. Subjective Probability: Unlike traditional probability theory (where probabilities are given), Savage’s model allows people to form their own subjective probabilities based on their beliefs about uncertain events.
3. Expected Utility: If a person follows these rational choice axioms, their decision-making can be explained by expected utility theory, meaning they act as if they are choosing the option with the highest weighted average payoff based on their beliefs.

Why is it Important?

• It provides a foundation for modern decision theory and behavioral economics.
• It explains how people can make choices in situations where probabilities are not given in advance (e.g., betting on the weather or investing in stocks).
• It bridges probability theory and utility theory, shaping economic models of risk and uncertainty.

In simple terms, Savage’s theorem shows that if someone follows certain logical principles while making decisions, they can be seen as choosing based on their own beliefs about uncertainty and maximizing their expected benefits.

Chronological Choice and Preference Discovery: A Framework for Decision-Making Over Time

This study introduces a framework for analyzing decision-making when choices are made in a specific chronological order. It compares this approach to the traditional choice theory, which does not consider the timing of decisions, and examines other models that build on this standard framework. The study then applies this framework to explore different ways individuals discover their preferences. Using simple revealed preference tests, it identifies various models based on two key factors: (1) the prior beliefs individuals have about their options and (2) whether they make decisions step by step or consider future choices when making current decisions. The findings offer new ways to test how individuals learn and refine their preferences, distinguishing between those who focus only on the present and those who plan for the future.

Revealing Preference Discovery: A Chronological Choice Framework

Ferreira, J.V., Gravel, N. Revealing preference discovery: a chronological choice framework. Theory Decis 98, 1–32 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-024-09993-9

Polarization, Hostility, and Spillover Effects in Conflict Dynamics

This study develops a simple conflict model with two players to examine how polarization and hostility evolve over time. It explores the effects of these factors on conflict intensity, possible outcomes, and the existence of stable equilibria. The findings indicate that without external influences (spillovers), the effort exerted in conflict depends on the ratio of effort productivity to initial polarization. However, when negative spillovers impact the conflict, stable equilibria may not exist. When spillovers influence outcomes, they can lead to multiple possible equilibria, including increased polarization and hostility. The analysis further examines how various factors—such as effort productivity, initial polarization, and the growth rates of polarization and hostility—affect conflict intensity and equilibrium outcomes. The results highlight the critical role of hostility, a factor often overlooked in conflict models. Finally, the study confirms that these findings remain valid even when only partial spillover effects are considered.

The Role of Polarization and Hostility on Equilibria in a Simple Class of Symmetric Conflict Models

Cavalli, F., Gilli, M. & Naimzada, A. The role of polarization and hostility on equilibria in a simple class of symmetric conflict models. Theory Decis 98, 61–83 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-024-09998-4

Fair Rewards in Crowdfunding: Balancing Contribution and Timing

The authors look at how to fairly reward people who contribute to a crowdfunded project. They create a model that isn’t based on strategy and introduce a new rule for rewards: a person’s reward depends on both how much money they give and when they give it. Using a method often used in sharing resources, they define this reward rule based on two simple fairness principles. The final rewards match a well-known idea from game theory called the Shapley value, which helps divide rewards fairly. Their rule also sends a clear message: if two people give the same amount, the one who donates earlier gets a bigger reward.


Early contributors and fair rewards in crowdfunding

Béal, S., Deschamps, M., Refait-Alexandre, C. et al. Early contributors and fair rewards in crowdfunding. Theory Decis 98, 33–59 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-024-09996-6 

Quotes for February 6

Good morning, everyone! Well, good morning for me—it might be the middle of the night for some of you.

Today is February 6, 2025. It’s been a crazy week at work, and I haven’t been getting much sleep, but I’m hoping that changes soon.

This morning, I came across a bunch of quotes on my Reedwise feed. Since I forgot to check it yesterday (blame the hectic week!), I now have two days’ worth of quotes to share. I should probably write something more thoughtful today, but honestly, the lack of sleep isn’t helping my creativity.

Hope you’re all doing well!

Quotes

"AI is also useful; ask ChatGPT how someone with an opposing viewpoint might receive your message."

— Stephanie Cornell & Daphne Moore, Fostering Collaboration Through Communications

"Let’s dispel the myth that negative self-talk is somehow more honest than positive self-talk. Positive self-talk is more realistic. Negative self-talk exaggerates the impact of what occurred."

— Devora Zack, Networking for People Who Hate Networking

"Digital Minimalism A philosophy of technology use in which you focus your online time on a small number of carefully selected and optimized activities that strongly support things you value, and then happily miss out on everything else."

— Cal Newport, Digital Minimalism

"Social Dominance Theory (SDT) begins with the basic observation that all human societies tend to be structured as systems of group-based social hierarchies."

— Jim Sidanius and Felicia Pratto, Social Dominance

"Fungi produce around fifty megatons of spores each year—equivalent to the weight of five hundred thousand blue whales—making them the largest source of living particles in the air. Spores are found in clouds and influence the weather by triggering the formation of the water droplets that form rain and the ice crystals that form snow, sleet, and hail."

— Merlin Sheldrake, Entangled Life

"To be a good listener is to accept pauses and silences because filling them too soon, much less preemptively, prevents the speaker from communicating what they are perhaps struggling to say. It quashes elaboration and prevents real issues from coming to the surface."

— Kate Murphy, You're Not Listening

"Where there is energy and enthusiasm (which comes from believing in the action that is taken) ownership will be generated and this in turn will ensure that activities are sustainable. Ideas and innovations only take off when there is a high level of ownership which is transmitted through networks – in the same way that a virus spreads through a population. Enthusiasm is built from a belief that something is important, and will actually make a difference; energy and momentum channelled through relationships."

— Danny Burns and Stuart Worsley, Navigating Complexity in International Development

"The second thing you must consider is whether people base their decisions on emotion or logic. The true answer to that question is, in fact, both; it is just that the decision is always made for emotive reasons first."

— Phil M Jones, Exactly What to Say

How Cancer Outsmarts Your Immune System: The Role of Mitochondrial Hijacking

Imagine your immune system trying to fight off cancer. Normally, your T cells are like soldiers, ready to attack and destroy cancer cells. But cancer cells have sneaky ways to avoid being attacked. They change the environment around them and disrupt the mitochondria—the energy factories—in your immune cells, particularly in tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs). This makes it harder for your immune system to do its job.

Now picture this: the cancer cells’ mitochondria, which may carry harmful mutations in their DNA, can actually transfer to your T cells. Typically, your T cells can get rid of damaged mitochondria through a process called mitophagy, triggered by harmful byproducts called reactive oxygen species. But cancer mitochondria come equipped with special molecules that prevent this cleanup process. These molecules stick to the cancer mitochondria and hitch a ride into your T cells, replacing your healthy mitochondria.

When your T cells take on these faulty mitochondria, they start to malfunction. They lose energy, stop working properly, and can no longer "remember" how to fight the cancer effectively. This weakens your immune system’s ability to attack the tumor. If your tumor has these mitochondrial DNA mutations, treatments like immune checkpoint inhibitors might not work as well, especially if you have melanoma or non-small-cell lung cancer.

This discovery shows you how cancer can trick your immune system in ways scientists didn’t fully understand before. Knowing this could lead to new, better treatments that help your immune system fight back.

In the study linked below, researchers looked at tissue samples from patients and found that the mitochondria in TILs sometimes carry the same DNA mutations as the cancer cells. The researchers also found that if a patient’s tumor has these mitochondrial DNA mutations, treatments like immune checkpoint inhibitors may not work as well, especially for melanoma or non-small-cell lung cancer.

These findings uncover a new way that cancer tricks the immune system and could help scientists develop better cancer treatments in the future.

From text: Fig. 5: mtDNA-mutated mitochondrial transfer reduces antitumour immunity in vivo.

Ikeda, H., Kawase, K., Nishi, T. et al. Immune evasion through mitochondrial transfer in the tumour microenvironment. Nature (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-08439-0

Can Every City Be a 15-Minute City?

The idea of a "15-minute city" has gained a lot of attention recently. This concept envisions cities where you can reach essential services, like schools, stores, and parks, within a 15-minute walk or bike ride. While this idea is exciting and has started important conversations about how cities should be designed, it isn’t practical everywhere, and there are challenges with how it’s defined.

This research explores how close cities around the world are to meeting the 15-minute city ideal. By measuring how quickly you can access important services, it becomes clear that access varies widely both within and between cities. A big factor is how densely populated areas are.

An online tool (https://whatif.sonycsl.it/15mincity/) allows you to explore access scores for almost any city in the world. The research also examines how better planning and resource distribution could reduce inequalities in access. The results show significant differences in the number of extra services cities would need to meet the 15-minute city standard.

To make this concept work for more cities, it should be adapted to fit local conditions, including population density and cultural needs. Instead of focusing only on time, cities should also prioritize what you and others value most.

Bruno, M., Monteiro Melo, H.P., Campanelli, B. et al. A universal framework for inclusive 15-minute cities. Nat Cities 1, 633–641 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44284-024-00119-4

Open the pod bay doors...

 This is what HAL had to tell me today

Photo by Alice Wu on Unsplash

"Witnessing a shift toward authoritarianism is understandably troubling, especially when it affects the morale of those around you. It's natural to want to address it directly, but not everyone is ready to face such realities head-on. Fear and denial are powerful coping mechanisms."

 

By Tom Cowap - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=103068276

Come on HAL, open the pod bay doors

While you're at it, here is some nice incidental music for the times

Cities and DEI - Quotes of the Day

 Quotes of the day! Cities and DEIA

Photo by SiravitPlug on Unsplash

Cities as hubs of innovation 

"In cities, we’re constantly interacting with people from diverse backgrounds, creating a web of social connections. These interactions drive us to adapt, learn, and grow."
–adigaskell.org, Urban Design Affects the Racial Biases We Develop

This quote resonates with my belief that cities are hubs of innovation and transformation. Their cosmopolitan nature—bringing together people from various cultures, mindsets, and experiences—creates fertile ground for new ideas and ways of thinking. For example, in history, Yokohama, Japan, was the only place where foreigners were allowed to reside. To this day, it remains a hub of innovation in Japan. Similarly, cities like New York, London, and Shanghai have emerged as centers of creativity and progress due to their cultural diversity.

DEI as means for improved organizational governance

"In the fourth week, the most junior, female member of the staff team said in a plenary session that she was aware of a conflict occurring in the group. The person chairing the session, the most senior, male government official on the lab team, declared, 'There is no conflict here!' The staff member was silenced, and over the remaining four weeks, she never, ever spoke in plenary again."
–Adam Kahane, Power and Love

This is an example of silencing, which highlights an important issue in diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives. The senior staff member, likely without realizing it, dismissed the concern with an offhand remark. This small moment caused a breakdown in communication and discouraged further contributions from the staff member. Addressing such situations isn’t about giving special treatment or prioritizing one group over another. It’s about fostering better communication and improving organizational dynamics, ensuring everyone feels heard and valued.

Embracing Complexity and Letting Go of Control

Embracing Complexity and Letting Go of Control

Sonja Blignaut, Ben Ramalingam, and Silvio Funtowicz share perspectives that weave together a common theme: the challenge of navigating complexity and the humility needed to do so effectively. Blignaut highlights that “constraints... create order,” suggesting that boundaries aren’t just limitations but tools that make chaos manageable. Ramalingam warns against oversimplification, cautioning us not to break apart a “complex mess” without appreciating how its parts are interconnected. This resonates with Funtowicz’s call to “abandon the idea that you can predict and control,” encouraging us to move away from a rigid, deterministic approach and embrace uncertainty and interdependence.

Together, these insights challenge the impulse to simplify complexity and instead invite us to value the unknown, seeing constraints not as barriers but as guiding frameworks for meaningful engagement.

"Constraints are one of the primary (if not the primary) ways that order is created." 
–Sonja Blignaut, Constraints in Complexity and the BART Framework

"‘Some of the greatest mistakes are made when dealing with a complex mess, by not seeing its dimensions in their entirety, carving off a part, and dealing with this part as if it were a complicated problem, and then solving it as if it were a simple puzzle, all the while ignoring the linkages and connections to other dimensions of the mess.’" 
–Ben Ramalingam, Aid on the Edge of Chaos

"you have to abandon this idea that you can predict and you can control"
–Scientific Advice Mechanism, Silvio Funtowicz on Post-Normal Science Advice  

Summary of "Power Causes Brain Damage" by Jerry Useem

Summary of "Power Causes Brain Damage" by Jerry Useem

Link

This article explores how power can impair a person's brain functions, supported by research in psychology and neuroscience. Studies reveal that power diminishes empathy, self-awareness, and the ability to perceive others' perspectives—traits often essential for gaining power initially. Researchers like Dacher Keltner and Sukhvinder Obhi have demonstrated that power suppresses "mirroring" processes in the brain, which are critical for empathy and understanding others.

Key examples include John Stumpf, the former Wells Fargo CEO, whose inability to read social cues during a congressional hearing highlights these impairments. The article links this phenomenon to the "power paradox," where individuals lose the social skills that helped them rise to power.

The effects of power are not always detrimental, as it can enhance efficiency by filtering out peripheral information. However, this can lead to stereotypical thinking and reliance on personal "vision," often resulting in poor decision-making.

Historical anecdotes and contemporary examples illustrate how figures like Winston Churchill and Indra Nooyi relied on "toe holders" or grounding influences to counteract the isolating effects of power. The article also discusses "hubris syndrome," a proposed disorder characterized by reckless behavior and a loss of touch with reality, which often afflicts long-standing leaders.

Ultimately, the article suggests that staying grounded and recalling past powerlessness can mitigate power's negative effects, but systemic solutions to this issue remain elusive.